Questão 0819e60c-b6
Prova:UECE 2009
Disciplina:Inglês
Assunto:Interpretação de texto | Reading comprehension
A piece of advice suggested in the text is
that
A piece of advice suggested in the text is
that
TEXT
One reason growth forecasts for rich
nations are so grim is the common assumption
that birth rates are falling. Fewer people will
produce less income, and shrinking economies.
Only the assumption of aging populations may be
wrong, according to a recent report by Goldman
Sachs that looks at key demographic trends for
the 21st century.
Since bottoming out in 2001, fertility
rates in a number of developed economies have
actually been on the rise. Among rich economies,
the jump is most pronounced in places like the
United Kingdom, France, Spain, and the U.S.
Larger immigrant populations in these nations
have something to do with this, as they tend to
have more children. Yet the effect is only short
term, as migrants adopt the fertility rates of their
new homes within a generation or so.
Goldman’s new analysis shows that
another reason for the unexpected jump, and one
that will play a bigger role in the future, is that women in rich countries have been having
children later and later in life, something that
traditional economic models don’t account for.
Standard estimates of fertility are still tabulated
assuming that most women are having children in
their early 20s, rather than late 20s or even 30s
and 40s, as has become more common in rich
countries with lots of women in the workforce. “In
parts of Europe (this method of calculation) has
probably understated true fertility by about 15 to
20 percent,” notes Goldman Sachs economist
Peter Berezin.
Those are big numbers, with potentially
very significant ramifications. For starters, it could
be that some of the problems faced by aging
nations with shrinking tax bases (like, for
example, overblown health-care spending,
crumbling infrastructure, and budget shortfalls)
may not be quite as bad as once envisioned. In
fact, there is some evidence to suggest that we
may soon start seeing mini baby booms, which, in
20 years or so, could have a significant impact on
the size of rich nations’ workforces, a shift that
can’t come too soon for countries now struggling
with unprecedented levels of national debt.
Another bright spot – recent surveys by
Eurobarometer show that European women
between the ages of 25 and 39 want to have more
children, if only it were easier to find a better
work-life balance. Note to European leaders: stop
worrying about the effects of immigration and
start creating better-paid part-time work.
Newsweek, September 28, 2009
TEXT
One reason growth forecasts for rich
nations are so grim is the common assumption
that birth rates are falling. Fewer people will
produce less income, and shrinking economies.
Only the assumption of aging populations may be
wrong, according to a recent report by Goldman
Sachs that looks at key demographic trends for
the 21st century.
Since bottoming out in 2001, fertility
rates in a number of developed economies have
actually been on the rise. Among rich economies,
the jump is most pronounced in places like the
United Kingdom, France, Spain, and the U.S.
Larger immigrant populations in these nations
have something to do with this, as they tend to
have more children. Yet the effect is only short
term, as migrants adopt the fertility rates of their
new homes within a generation or so.
Goldman’s new analysis shows that
another reason for the unexpected jump, and one
that will play a bigger role in the future, is that women in rich countries have been having
children later and later in life, something that
traditional economic models don’t account for.
Standard estimates of fertility are still tabulated
assuming that most women are having children in
their early 20s, rather than late 20s or even 30s
and 40s, as has become more common in rich
countries with lots of women in the workforce. “In
parts of Europe (this method of calculation) has
probably understated true fertility by about 15 to
20 percent,” notes Goldman Sachs economist
Peter Berezin.
Those are big numbers, with potentially
very significant ramifications. For starters, it could
be that some of the problems faced by aging
nations with shrinking tax bases (like, for
example, overblown health-care spending,
crumbling infrastructure, and budget shortfalls)
may not be quite as bad as once envisioned. In
fact, there is some evidence to suggest that we
may soon start seeing mini baby booms, which, in
20 years or so, could have a significant impact on
the size of rich nations’ workforces, a shift that
can’t come too soon for countries now struggling
with unprecedented levels of national debt.
Another bright spot – recent surveys by
Eurobarometer show that European women
between the ages of 25 and 39 want to have more
children, if only it were easier to find a better
work-life balance. Note to European leaders: stop
worrying about the effects of immigration and
start creating better-paid part-time work.
Newsweek, September 28, 2009
A
people in developed countries should
adopt children from poor countries
B
more money should be invested in
nuclear plants
C
more part-time jobs with better
salaries should be created in Europe
D
women should not give birth in their
40s
Gabarito comentado
S
Simone Vargas Monitor com apoio de IA
Gabarito: C
Fundamento decisivo: O comando exige identificar uma advice explicitamente sugerida no texto. O trecho decisivo é “Note to European leaders: stop worrying about the effects of immigration and start creating better-paid part-time work.”, e o critério determinante é a correspondência direta com “start creating better-paid part-time work”, o que torna a alternativa C a única compatível com o conselho expresso.
Tema central: conselho explícito no texto
Análise das alternativas
A
Errada
Incorreta. O texto não sugere adoção de crianças de países pobres por pessoas de países desenvolvidos. Essa alternativa cria uma medida ausente do texto e não corresponde à recomendação final do autor.
B
Errada
Incorreta. Não há menção a energia nuclear, usinas nucleares ou investimento nesse setor. A alternativa é totalmente dissociada do conteúdo textual e sem qualquer apoio no trecho pedido.
C
Certa
A alternativa C está correta porque corresponde a “start creating better-paid part-time work”, recomendação expressa no fechamento do texto. Essa formulação é a base textual da resposta e se refere à criação de trabalho de meio período melhor remunerado na Europa, sem necessidade de inferência além do que foi dito.
D
Errada
Incorreta. O texto descreve que mulheres em países ricos têm tido filhos mais tarde, inclusive nos 30 e 40 anos, e usa isso para explicar por que modelos tradicionais subestimam a fertilidade. Não há prescrição para que mulheres não deem à luz nessa faixa etária. A alternativa transforma descrição demográfica em conselho normativo inexistente.
Pegadinha da questão
A banca explora a confusão entre informação descritiva e conselho explícito: o texto descreve tendências demográficas em vários pontos, mas a advice propriamente dita aparece concentrada no final, introduzida por “Note to European leaders”.
Dica para questões semelhantes
- Quando o comando pedir advice, recommendation ou suggestion, localize no texto verbos e estruturas de orientação explícitas, não apenas ideias gerais do tema.
- Dê prioridade a trechos conclusivos ou dirigidos a um destinatário específico, como ocorre em “Note to European leaders”.
- Elimine alternativas socialmente plausíveis, mas sem correspondência textual direta com a formulação do autor.
