Questão 08105662-b6
Prova:UECE 2009
Disciplina:Inglês
Assunto:Interpretação de texto | Reading comprehension
Among the problems in aging nations, the
text mentions
Among the problems in aging nations, the
text mentions
TEXT
One reason growth forecasts for rich
nations are so grim is the common assumption
that birth rates are falling. Fewer people will
produce less income, and shrinking economies.
Only the assumption of aging populations may be
wrong, according to a recent report by Goldman
Sachs that looks at key demographic trends for
the 21st century.
Since bottoming out in 2001, fertility
rates in a number of developed economies have
actually been on the rise. Among rich economies,
the jump is most pronounced in places like the
United Kingdom, France, Spain, and the U.S.
Larger immigrant populations in these nations
have something to do with this, as they tend to
have more children. Yet the effect is only short
term, as migrants adopt the fertility rates of their
new homes within a generation or so.
Goldman’s new analysis shows that
another reason for the unexpected jump, and one
that will play a bigger role in the future, is that women in rich countries have been having
children later and later in life, something that
traditional economic models don’t account for.
Standard estimates of fertility are still tabulated
assuming that most women are having children in
their early 20s, rather than late 20s or even 30s
and 40s, as has become more common in rich
countries with lots of women in the workforce. “In
parts of Europe (this method of calculation) has
probably understated true fertility by about 15 to
20 percent,” notes Goldman Sachs economist
Peter Berezin.
Those are big numbers, with potentially
very significant ramifications. For starters, it could
be that some of the problems faced by aging
nations with shrinking tax bases (like, for
example, overblown health-care spending,
crumbling infrastructure, and budget shortfalls)
may not be quite as bad as once envisioned. In
fact, there is some evidence to suggest that we
may soon start seeing mini baby booms, which, in
20 years or so, could have a significant impact on
the size of rich nations’ workforces, a shift that
can’t come too soon for countries now struggling
with unprecedented levels of national debt.
Another bright spot – recent surveys by
Eurobarometer show that European women
between the ages of 25 and 39 want to have more
children, if only it were easier to find a better
work-life balance. Note to European leaders: stop
worrying about the effects of immigration and
start creating better-paid part-time work.
Newsweek, September 28, 2009
TEXT
One reason growth forecasts for rich
nations are so grim is the common assumption
that birth rates are falling. Fewer people will
produce less income, and shrinking economies.
Only the assumption of aging populations may be
wrong, according to a recent report by Goldman
Sachs that looks at key demographic trends for
the 21st century.
Since bottoming out in 2001, fertility
rates in a number of developed economies have
actually been on the rise. Among rich economies,
the jump is most pronounced in places like the
United Kingdom, France, Spain, and the U.S.
Larger immigrant populations in these nations
have something to do with this, as they tend to
have more children. Yet the effect is only short
term, as migrants adopt the fertility rates of their
new homes within a generation or so.
Goldman’s new analysis shows that
another reason for the unexpected jump, and one
that will play a bigger role in the future, is that women in rich countries have been having
children later and later in life, something that
traditional economic models don’t account for.
Standard estimates of fertility are still tabulated
assuming that most women are having children in
their early 20s, rather than late 20s or even 30s
and 40s, as has become more common in rich
countries with lots of women in the workforce. “In
parts of Europe (this method of calculation) has
probably understated true fertility by about 15 to
20 percent,” notes Goldman Sachs economist
Peter Berezin.
Those are big numbers, with potentially
very significant ramifications. For starters, it could
be that some of the problems faced by aging
nations with shrinking tax bases (like, for
example, overblown health-care spending,
crumbling infrastructure, and budget shortfalls)
may not be quite as bad as once envisioned. In
fact, there is some evidence to suggest that we
may soon start seeing mini baby booms, which, in
20 years or so, could have a significant impact on
the size of rich nations’ workforces, a shift that
can’t come too soon for countries now struggling
with unprecedented levels of national debt.
Another bright spot – recent surveys by
Eurobarometer show that European women
between the ages of 25 and 39 want to have more
children, if only it were easier to find a better
work-life balance. Note to European leaders: stop
worrying about the effects of immigration and
start creating better-paid part-time work.
Newsweek, September 28, 2009
A
an increase in illiteracy rates among
women
B
sudden shrinking of both budget and
spending
C
spending on health-care for illegal
immigrants
D
imbalance between the budget and
the huge amount of money spent on
health-care
Gabarito comentado
I
Igor Almeida Monitor com apoio de IA
Gabarito: D
Fundamento decisivo: O critério decisivo é localizar informação explicitamente mencionada no texto e verificar a correspondência semântica fiel. Como o comando pede o que o texto menciona entre os problemas das aging nations, o trecho obrigatório é “some of the problems faced by aging nations with shrinking tax bases (like, for example, overblown health-care spending, crumbling infrastructure, and budget shortfalls)”. Assim, a resposta correta é a alternativa que retoma esses problemas sem acrescentar informação nova.
Tema central: localização de informação explícita
Análise das alternativas
A
Errada
Incorreta por ausência total de suporte textual. O texto não menciona aumento de analfabetismo nem trata de illiteracy rates among women. A referência a women aparece no contexto de fertilidade, trabalho e desejo de ter mais filhos, não em educação.
B
Errada
Incorreta por distorção semântica. O texto fala em “budget shortfalls” e “overblown health-care spending”. Isso não significa encolhimento súbito de orçamento e de gastos; ao contrário, o gasto com saúde é descrito como excessivo, não reduzido. Além disso, “budget shortfalls” indica insuficiência ou déficit orçamentário, não simples shrinking.
C
Errada
Incorreta por acréscimo de informação inexistente no texto. Há menção a gasto excessivo com saúde, mas em nenhum momento o texto o vincula a illegal immigrants. Essa associação mistura indevidamente o trecho sobre imigração e fertilidade com a enumeração dos problemas das aging nations.
D
Certa
A alternativa D está correta porque corresponde, por paráfrase, a dois problemas expressamente listados no texto: “overblown health-care spending” e “budget shortfalls”. O primeiro sustenta a parte referente ao grande volume de gasto com saúde; o segundo sustenta a ideia de insuficiência ou déficit orçamentário. A formulação não é literal, mas preserva o conteúdo semântico exigido pelo trecho citado.
Pegadinha da questão
A banca explora duas confusões reais: inserir elementos plausíveis, mas não mencionados, como illiteracy e illegal immigrants, e trocar o sentido de “budget shortfalls” e “overblown health-care spending”, como se o texto falasse em redução de gastos, quando fala em déficit orçamentário e gasto excessivo com saúde.
Dica para questões semelhantes
- Quando o comando pedir o que o texto menciona, procure primeiro a enumeração literal no texto-base antes de avaliar as alternativas.
- Aceite paráfrase apenas se ela conservar o mesmo conteúdo semântico do trecho original, sem acrescentar causa, agente ou detalhe novo.
- Elimine de imediato opções que introduzam termos não presentes no texto, mesmo que sejam tematicamente plausíveis.
